The April employment report echoed the tone of my last few posts. Yes, the severity of the declines are "less bad" than over the last few months but still reflects a declining economy.
Those receiving April payrolls fell -539,000, the smallest decline since October but at over a half million are still very ugly. Moreover, hiring for the federal census survey bulked up government payrolls to leave a -611,000 decline in private (non-gov't) payrolls. Revisions to past months sliced another -66,000 as the recession has left a 5.7 mln drain on employment. Though it won't get any notice, the separate household survey showed the first rise in employment in a year. The market (and the press) watch the more reliable establishment employment survey.
Theunemployment rate continued 0.4% higher to a quarter century high of 8.9%. This lagging economic indicator is expected to reach a peak near 10% before starting a downward trend.
As initial unemployment benefit claims (read layoffs) appears to have peaked the trend ahead should be smaller monthly declines. However, those currently unemployed (seen in continued benefit claims) continue to rise leaving high unemployment a continued concern for households.
The softening declines are part of the business cycle -- after the accelerating declines and before a return to stabilization and the positive growth that follows. The slow improvement is agonizing but on the right path as long as added pressures don't bring on a double dip recession (seen in the early 80s) which seems unlikely as the truly massive government aid from the Fed, Treasury and fiscal stimulus provides the forward view.
Every man is his own worst enemy
Posted by: woolrich outlet | December 17, 2011 at 08:12 PM