Improving Labor Markets

I'm reviewing the recent trends in the weekly unemployment claims data as a preview of next week's key employment report. 

Remember that May payroll decline came in at a seven month low -- far better than expected given  the lack of a significant decline in initial unemployment claims.  While the data continue to reflect a slow downward trend from the 4-week average peak in early April, they still don't reflect a significant improvement which would drive the payrolls data.  The improvement since the May payroll survey week is only 13,000.   Reason enough to expect market forecasts and the June payroll decline to be larger than the May decline.  That won't help market expectations.

The continued claims data which best approximates the unemployment rate is showing reasons to be enthusiastic about the June employment report.  The lack of a significant rebound after the -126,000 June 6 decline argues for a small rise in June unemployment after the half point rise in May and the 0.4% average monthly rise over the last six months.  A slowing or peaking(?) unemployment rate will strengthen expectations for the recovery.

While initial claims (i.e.  for those just fired) seems to have reached its peak in late March it may be too early to say the same for the record high in continued claims (i.e.  unemployed) in late May.  But peaks are the turning points as the pressures on the labor markets begin to improve and provide further confirmation that the recession is nearing its end.   

Comments

[air jordan]

Good article must think with the heart and feel with the brains. Victor Hugo, French writer Jazz tickles your muscles, symphonies stretch your soul.

[coach outlet factory]

east or west, home is best.

[Jordan Carmelo Anthony]

My heart beats her waves at the shore of the world and writes upon
　　 it her signature in tears with the words, “I love thee.“