The May payrolls decline showed far more improvement than expected but still only warrants the same bottom line seen in many of the economic indicators -- a slower downward trend. Estimates ranged around a -550,000 decline as May payrolls fell just -345,000. But add a rise in the unemployment rate to a quarter century high of 9.4% and the shortest workweek on record and the dire labor conditions remain clear. That may explain why the stock market didn't show any real lift on Friday.
In fact, even the smaller -345K decline is the largest since 1980 if you exclude the plunge during the current recession. To emphasize the depth of the current employment decline the chart below compares the upward trends from the lowest of the recession payroll declines to the recession ends. From this basis the May decline finally brings the payroll declines in to the ranges of the past recessions.
Nonetheless, the May improvement was encouraging. Goods-producing jobs showed the smallest decline since October thanks to an unexpected halving in the construction decline. Manufacturing declines, under the heavy weight of the auto sector, held steady.
The large improvement (over 200K) came from private service-providing jobs. Improvement of over 40K came from the leading indicator of temporary help as well as leisure/hospitality. Health care continued on with monthly gains. The improvement was broad based as retail and financial activities showed the smallest declines in over a half year. Government payrolls (public service) fell -7K after the 92K lift census hiring left in April.
Even if the present, the match does not stop changes the page#.
Posted by: air jordan 7 | November 03, 2010 at 04:55 AM
My heart beats her waves at the shore of the world and writes upon
it her signature in tears with the words, “I love thee.“
Posted by: Jordan Carmelo Anthony | December 14, 2010 at 09:07 PM
SOSOSO....THERE'S A HERO.
Posted by: New Jordans | January 26, 2011 at 04:30 AM